Cincinnati Reds left-hander, now 27, is set to enter his fourth MLB season, which has the potential to be his best yet. Aside from his impressive rookie campaign in 2022, where he posted a 3.66 ERA, His performance has largely fallen short of expectations, especially given his dominant repertoire. As he heads into his fourth year, there are indications that the 2019 draft pick could finally reach his full potential and establish himself as a long-term ace in Cincinnati.
Live BP Sunday in Goodyear Nick Lodolo v. Will Benson pic.twitter.com/LQTrkgNlHo
— Mike Petraglia (@Trags) February 16, 2025
Nick Lodolo Could Have a Breakout Season
Lodolo’s Under the Hood Stats Last Season
Despite setting a career-high in innings pitched in 2024, Lodolo still fell short of typical starter expectations. Limited by injury, he managed only 115 1/3 innings while posting a 4.76 ERA. However, his 3.72 xERA and 3.95 FIP indicate that his results may have been somewhat misleading.
His Baseball Savant metrics paint a more encouraging picture, with several categories ranking above league average. Lodolo excelled at generating ground balls, posting a 44.9% ground-ball rate (63rd percentile), and maintained solid control with a 7.5% walk rate (57th percentile). His ability to miss bats stood out as well, evidenced by a 24.7% strikeout rate (64th percentile), 28.1% whiff rate (70th percentile), and 30.2% chase rate (67th percentile).
As a tall left-hander with an across-the-body delivery who effectively induces both whiffs and grounders, Lodolo presents an intriguing project for the Reds’ pitching development team as he continues to gain experience at the major league level.
Struggles in 2024
Nick Lodolo’s performance has been solid in many areas, but one aspect of his game remains a challenge: limiting the quality of opponent contact.
His opponents averaged an exit velocity of 89.2 MPH and a Barrel% of 8.2%, ranking him in the 39th percentile for both statistics among qualified MLB pitchers. While his 38 Hard-Hit% is slightly better, placing him in the 55th percentile, it still shows room for improvement.
This issue was evident even in his strong 3.66 ERA rookie season. During that year, Lodolo ranked in the 26th percentile for Hard-Hit% (40.6%), the 18th percentile for Barrel% (9.1%), and the 45th percentile for opponent exit velocity (88.7 MPH).
As his career progresses, these metrics are gradually approaching league averages, offering hope that this area of weakness could evolve into a strength, or at least become more manageable.
Notable Splits in 2024
Left-handed pitchers generally face their toughest matchups against other left-handed batters, but Nick Lodolo excelled in these situations during 2024, allowing no home runs to lefty hitters.
However, Lodolo struggled in the first inning, giving up 13 earned runs in 21 starts (5.57 ERA). Despite the rough starts, he was fairly effective against lineups the first time through, posting a 3.94 ERA. As the game progressed and batters saw him more, his performance declined, with a 5.09 ERA the second time through and a 4.91 ERA the third time.
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One of Lodolo’s notable strengths was his success when ahead in the count. After starting with an 0-1 count, opponents managed just a .178/.261/.278 slash line against him. While pitchers often perform better when ahead in the count, Lodolo exemplifies the idea that “the best pitch for a pitcher is strike one.”
Can Lodolo Become a More Successful Big Leaguer?
Predicting Nick Lodolo’s 2025 performance is challenging, partly because of his limited workload and the inconsistency in his performance. However, based on his statistics and analytics, he has the potential to succeed in the big leagues eventually.
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