Not long ago, it seemed like former general manager Jeff Gorton hurried to the podium to pick Kaapo Kakko from TPS Turku.
Now, almost five years later, the Finnish winger, who was expected to play a significant role in the New York Rangers’ future and aid in their rebuild, has fallen short of the high expectations set by his second overall draft position. As things stand, it appears his time with the Blueshirts may be coming to an end sooner rather than later. However, Kakko will likely have one final opportunity to prove himself, as current GM and president Chris Drury has yet to receive a sufficiently appealing trade offer.
Reviewing Kakko’s Young Rangers Career
Although Kakko has shown glimpses of his potential, overall, his performance over five NHL seasons has been disappointing. While some responsibility falls on the player, the coaching staff and the Rangers’ development system also deserve criticism.
The issues began in his rookie season under head coach David Quinn. Kakko was expected to provide a spark for the team, but despite some growing pains, it seems the organization may have given him too much freedom without adequate support to ensure his success. Analytically, his 2019-20 season was a disaster, with one of the worst expected goals (xGF) rates in the league at 39.41 percent, according to Natural Stat Trick. Though the season was disrupted by COVID-19, this was still a significant sample of 66 games. Despite his struggles, Quinn kept him in the lineup, giving him valuable NHL experience, but perhaps he should have started the season in the AHL to build confidence by playing top-line minutes.
Kakko’s second season showed improvement, but his relationship with Quinn was far from perfect. Despite leading the team in xGF in 2020-21, he was still relegated to bottom-six minutes and ranked seventh among forwards in ice time. Quinn’s inability to properly utilize Kakko might have contributed to his firing after the season, although there was hope for the future.
Gerard Gallant, Quinn’s successor, seemed a better fit for Kakko’s power-forward style, and early on, Kakko secured a top-six role. Unfortunately, injuries sidelined him for 39 games, although he returned for the playoffs and played a key role on the “Kid Line” alongside Filip Chytil and Alexis Lafreniere. Despite a strong playoff run, the Rangers fell short against the Tampa Bay Lightning, with Kakko scratched in the elimination Game 6.
In the 2022-23 season, Kakko finally had his best statistical performance, recording 18 goals and 22 assists for 40 points, playing in all 82 games, and receiving the third-most ice time among forwards. However, he remained stuck on the third line after the Rangers acquired Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane. The team’s early playoff exit led to Gallant’s departure.
With Peter Laviolette as the new head coach, there was optimism that Kakko would build on his progress and become a top-six winger. Laviolette paired him with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, but Kakko struggled to generate the expected spark. A leg injury in November further hampered his season, and even after his return in January, he was unable to make a significant impact in the top six.
Kakko found his groove on the third line, but the Rangers traded for Jack Roslovic at the deadline, who, while not the most dynamic player, was seen as an upgrade. Kakko’s season ended with just 19 points in 61 games, and he was a healthy scratch in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final.
In the end, Kakko has developed into a solid player, but he has not lived up to the expectations set on his draft day. Injuries have also played a significant role in his struggles.
What Could the Rangers Get in a Trade Package?
Here’s a paraphrased version of the passage:
“If the Rangers decide to trade Kakko, they would likely be selling low. Given his current trajectory, it’s fair to question his potential. Could he develop into a second-line player capable of scoring 40-50 points? Perhaps, but that might not satisfy Rangers fans considering where he was drafted.
The key consideration is his current trade value as a top-nine winger. Will teams still value him based on his status as a former second-overall pick? The fact that he hasn’t been traded yet suggests his value might be too low to make a trade worthwhile at this point, perhaps only fetching a third-round pick or slightly more.
Kakko’s problem is not just the uncertainty regarding his place in the top six, but also that he doesn’t play a premium position. His trade value could be higher if he were a center. For instance, Kirby Dach, from the same draft class as Kakko, was traded for the 13th and 66th overall picks in 2022, underscoring the value of centers, even those limited to third-line roles.
Although no trade has occurred, there were reports from the New York Post that the Rangers could have used Kakko to move up in the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft. It seems likely that Kakko’s time with the Rangers will eventually come to an end. He’ll have a chance during training camp to demonstrate that his game has improved, but time isn’t on his side. The Rangers have a wave of young prospects, including Brennan Othmann, Brett Berard, and blue-chip talent Gabriel Perreault, who are all poised to compete for roster spots in 2024-25. This season might be Kakko’s last chance to prove he can be a core part of the team.”
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