Despite a mediocre performance leading up to the MLB All-Star break, the St. Louis Cardinals are in a position to buy at the July 30 trade deadline.
With a record of 50-46, the Cardinals are one game ahead in the National League Wild Card race and trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 4.5 games in the NL Central. However, they need starting pitching. According to MLB.com’s John Denton, they may target Nathan Eovaldi and Zach Eflin.
“For the first time in decades, the Cardinals were sellers at the Trade Deadline last season, trading five pitchers for a slew of prospects,” Denton wrote in a story published July 20. “Now, the Cards will use those prospects and others to try to attract pitching help and potentially a game-changing right-handed bat to St. Louis. Two pitchers the Cards will likely target, according to a source: Rangers’ right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and Rays’ righty Zach Eflin.”
While the Cardinals’ rotation isn’t terrible, it isn’t championship-caliber either. They rank 21st in starter ERA (4.44) and are average in FIP (4.07) and strikeouts per nine innings (8.20). Sonny Gray is the only starter with an ERA below 4.10 and a WHIP under 1.200.
Why a Nathon Eovaldi Trade Makes Sense for the Cardinals
Nathan Eovaldi is a compelling trade option for the Cardinals if they aim for a World Series title this year. Although at 34, Eovaldi would contribute to the already aging St. Louis rotation, his exceptional playoff performance makes him valuable.
Eovaldi earned his first World Series ring with the Texas Rangers last season. With the Red Sox and Rangers, he has a career postseason ERA of 3.05 over 17 starts, averaging 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in the postseason, compared to his regular season average of 7.7.
If he remains healthy, Eovaldi could continue in the Cardinals’ rotation next year. He has a $20 million player option that will vest if he reaches 300 combined innings in 2023 and 2024, and he’s currently at 243.
Despite his age, Eovaldi still averages 95.5 mph on his fastball—a slight decrease from his peak, but batters are hitting just .183 against it in 2024. His slider is also effective, with opponents hitting .202 against it.
Why a Zach Eflin Trade Makes Sense for the Cardinals
Zach Eflin’s numbers aren’t as impressive as Eovaldi’s, with a 4.14 ERA and 94 ERA+. His stats are somewhat skewed by a recent poor performance against the Yankees, where he allowed four earned runs and walked four over five innings.
However, Eflin is just one season removed from leading the American League with 16 wins and posting a 3.50 ERA in the AL East. With a contract similar to Eovaldi’s, including one more year at $18 million due in 2025, Eflin would be a more affordable option.
Eflin lacks Eovaldi’s postseason experience. He has played in 11 playoff games, starting only one, and has a 5.17 ERA over 15.2 innings.
At 30, Eflin would be the youngest in the Cardinals’ rotation. Looking ahead, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have club options for next year, while the rest of the rotation is under contract. Despite the depth, there’s no such thing as too much pitching. If the Cardinals retain their options and make no other moves, Eflin could still find a spot next season, provided he proves himself in 2024.
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