I don’t want to cause alarm, but I think it’s happening.
After a rookie season that left much to be desired, many had written off Tyree Wilson. When the Raiders selected him 7th overall in 2023, he was always seen as a long-term project. He wrapped up his rookie year with just 3.5 sacks without starting a game and struggled to earn playing time during this year’s training camp.
Since then, Wilson has been at the center of nearly every Raiders trade rumor not involving Davante Adams. The Raiders have a deep defensive line, and Wilson wasn’t drafted by Antonio Pierce or Tom Telesco, so a change of scenery seemed like a possibility. It felt as though another disappointing season could signal the end of his time in Las Vegas, whether fair or not.
But after a month of play, the early signs from Wilson’s performance are… unexpectedly encouraging? Almost, dare I say, good? Wilson may have been the Raiders’ standout player in their Week 4 victory over the Browns, and some of the underlying data suggests he’s been quietly effective through the first quarter of the season.
Tyree Wilson is starting to show signs of being an NFL-caliber pass rusher
#Raiders pass rush vs CLE:
Adam Butler: 7 pressures, 2 QB Hits, 10.8% Win Rate
Tyree Wilson: 5 pressures, 2 QB Hits, 21.4% Win Rate
Charles Snowden: 5 pressures, sack, 3 QB Hits, 8.3% Win Rate
Christian Wilkins: 4 pressures, .5 sack, 3 QB Hits, 10.3% Win Rate
K'Lavon Chaisson:…— Tristen Kuhn (@KuhnTristen) September 30, 2024
Tyree Wilson's 15.6% pass rush win rate is currently 24th in the NFL at EDGE. He's 4th among 2023 drafted EDGE rushers ahead of Will Anderson, Byron Young, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Nolan Smith among others.
— Tristen Kuhn (@KuhnTristen) September 30, 2024
Wilson is still searching for his first sack of the season, so it’s not yet time to call this a breakout year. However, sacks aren’t the most reliable stat, and there’s plenty to be encouraged about when you look at the underlying numbers. A month ago, if someone had predicted that Wilson would be more productive than *Will Anderson* early on, it would have sounded laughable. But if sacks are the payoff for the hard work done behind the scenes, it wouldn’t be surprising if they start coming soon.
For fans of PFF metrics, there’s more good news: his grades are impressive. His overall defensive grade (75.0) ranks 25th among all EDGE defenders in the NFL. While his pass-rush grade (69.5) is a bit lower, placing him 35th overall, his standout run defense (10th overall!) more than compensates. And keep in mind, Wilson just turned 24 recently, showing that young pass rushers often need more than one season to fully develop.
It might be premature to make bold predictions, but it definitely looks like Tyree Wilson is on the verge of a breakout.
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