The Mariners’ season has concluded once again; what transpired?
The Seattle Mariners’ 2024 season has come to a close, leaving fans once again questioning what went wrong this time.
After years of disappointments marked by poor coaching, ineffective trades, inadequate player development, and financial mismanagement that resulted in a 20-year playoff drought from 2002 to 2021, there was renewed optimism this year. Following a playoff appearance in 2022, the Mariners assembled a star-studded roster for 2024.
This time, the coaching situation seemed solid, with Scott Servais receiving Manager of the Year votes in 2022 and enjoying the distinction of being the franchise’s longest-tenured manager, reflecting his success in maximizing player performance.
The team made significant trades, acquiring second baseman Jorge Polanco, relief pitcher Gregory Santos, and outfielder Luke Raley, all viewed positively by fans. They also signed designated hitter/catcher Mitch Garver, fresh off a World Series victory with the Rangers, and offloaded the unwanted contracts of Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales.
Central to the Mariners’ success was their young talent, including Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Andres Munoz, and JP Crawford. These players were either drafted, signed, or traded for at a young age and developed into stars.
It appeared the Mariners had ticked all the right boxes: they had young talent, veteran presence (like Mitch Haniger, Luis Castillo, and Ryne Stanek), promising breakout candidates (such as Woo, Miller, and Dominic Canzone), reliable role players (including Dylan Moore, Tayler Saucedo, and Josh Rojas), and a strong mix of newcomers and returning players.
Yet, despite finishing with their fourth consecutive winning record—a first in franchise history—at 85-77, the label of “winning team” felt more like a consolation prize. For the 22nd time in 23 seasons, and the third time in their four-year streak of winning records, the Mariners were on the outside looking in as the playoffs commenced.
So, what went wrong this time?
Statistically, the Mariners were not a poor team in 2024. In fact, their numbers suggested they should have made the playoffs. They ranked among the top ten teams in baseball in several metrics, yet finished with the 14th-best record, missing the playoff cutoff of the top 12 teams.
The Mariners led Major League Baseball with a collective ERA of 3.49. While their run production ranked 21st overall, their wRC+ (a metric that evaluates offensive production adjusted for park effects) put them 12th. They boasted a +69 run differential (sixth-best in the American League) and an expected record of 89-73, which would have qualified them for the playoffs.
However, the Mariners stood out negatively in two key areas: batting average (AVG) and strikeout percentage (K%). These statistics significantly hindered their performance in 2024.
Despite ranking 15th in on-base percentage, the Mariners’ team batting average was a dismal .224, placing them 29th in the league—only ahead of the historically poor White Sox, who finished with a .221 average.
Modern baseball analytics suggest that AVG has become less important than home runs and walks. While it’s true that a high AVG is no longer seen as crucial, there remains inherent value in accumulating hits.
The Mariners walked frequently, ranking fourth in MLB for walks, which bolstered their on-base percentage. However, walks only advance a runner to first base. Although a walk may be more advantageous than a single in terms of pitch count, doubles and triples provide more significant value, and the Mariners struggled in this aspect, ranking 27th in doubles and 29th in triples.
So why weren’t the Mariners getting hits? T-Mobile Park’s notorious Marine Layer could have affected their home run production, turning potential homers into flyouts. However, the primary issue lay in their contact rates, which were alarmingly poor.
Leading the league in strikeouts, the Mariners struck out 26.8% of the time, tying with the Rockies for the highest K% in baseball. This was partly due to players pressing too hard, aiming for home runs instead of focusing on making contact. However, a larger problem stemmed from the team’s “control the zone” philosophy, which backfired in 2024.
While “controlling the zone” was effective for pitching, as it minimized walks and kept opposing batters at bay, it led the hitters to be excessively selective, resulting in a high number of called strikes. The Mariners recorded the most looking strikeouts in the league and likely led in overall looking strikes as well.
Leaving so many strikes unattended caused players to fall behind in the count. Instead of battling close pitches by fouling them off, the Mariners often found themselves called out looking at borderline pitches. Their unwillingness to swing at anything outside their desired zone led to early count deficits.
This struggle was especially evident in situational hitting. The Mariners found it challenging to move baserunners into scoring position and subsequently across home plate. Productive outs—such as deep flyouts, ground balls, bunts, and fielder’s choices—are crucial, especially in close contests. The Mariners lost several tight games, often by just one run. More productive outs and fewer strikeouts could have advanced runners and secured victories through small ball tactics.
Another major issue was inconsistency. While the Mariners could score in bunches, their offensive outbursts were often sporadic. They would appear lifeless for multiple games, dropping contests by scores like 2-1, 3-1, and 4-2, before suddenly erupting for a 10-2 win. Although they might outscore their opponents over a series, they frequently lost series due to a lack of consistent scoring.
A pertinent question is why the Mariners frequently struggled to score despite their evident talent, which was reflected in their occasional high-scoring games.
Particularly troubling was their performance in day games and against weaker opponents. Seattle dropped eight games to the Angels, one of the league’s bottom teams. They also lost series to the Marlins, Athletics, Rays, Red Sox, Pirates, and Nationals, all of whom finished with sub-.500 records. The Tigers, who narrowly edged the Mariners for the final playoff spot in the American League, went 5-1 against them.
It’s possible the Mariners lacked motivation against weaker competition or were fatigued during day games. These issues could be laid at the feet of former manager Scott Servais, who was fired midseason. One of a manager’s primary responsibilities is to energize and motivate the team for every game, even those that seem less significant.
Scott Servais’ dismissal appeared to yield results, albeit in a limited sample size. The Mariners were a .500 team at the time of his firing but finished eight games above .500 under interim manager Dan Wilson. Much of this success stemmed from an 8-2 finish against weakened opponents like the injury-riddled Rangers and the struggling Athletics. Still, the team showed signs of improvement under new leadership. Perhaps the decision to wait too long to replace Servais hindered their playoff aspirations. If they had made the switch to Wilson earlier, they might have gained enough momentum to reach the postseason.
The Mariners’ failure to qualify for the playoffs stemmed from multiple factors, but one game stands out.
On June 7, the Mariners held an 8-0 lead over the Royals in Kansas City heading into the fourth inning, having scored seven runs in the first inning and looking poised for an easy victory.
After MJ Melendez cut the lead to 8-3 with a three-run homer in the fourth, the Royals rallied for three more runs in the sixth, leaving the Mariners with a slim 9-7 advantage heading into the final inning.
However, a walk followed by a crucial throwing error from Josh Rojas shifted momentum. Bobby Witt Jr. tied the game with a triple, and a fielder’s choice sealed a walk-off victory for Kansas City.
Had the Mariners not squandered that 8-0 lead on June 7, they would have finished with 86 wins, while the Royals would have ended with 85.
Despite significant strikeout issues, coaching challenges, and offensive inconsistencies, the Mariners were just one blown lead away from postseason play.
Can this be attributed to bad luck? Not entirely—doing so would excuse the team’s shortcomings and allow them to evade accountability. The Mariners had genuine issues in 2024. Their proximity to the playoffs underscores their talent and should encourage the organization to invest further in their core players.
While it may be a long offseason for Mariners fans, with the right decisions, the team could quickly return to contention.
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