The spotlight is on New York Rangers star center Mika Zibanejad.
Zibanejad, the versatile top center, has been pivotal during the team’s two deep playoff runs in the past three years and their President’s Trophy win. While this scrutiny may seem excessive on the surface, there are underlying issues.
It’s no longer sufficient to blame the ill-fated Pavel Buchnevich trade that left Zibanejad and Chris Kreider without their third key player.
When the Rangers announced their rebuilding plans in February 2018, it was unlikely they envisioned Zibanejad evolving into a top center due to his history of injuries and inconsistency.
On this day in 2016, the Rangers acquired Mika Zibanejad and a 2018 second-round pick from the Senators in exchange for Derick Brassard and a 2018 7th-round pick.
Best trade of the last 6 years? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/4iEd3jPiJH
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) July 18, 2022
Had management foreseen Zibanejad’s potential, they might not have committed so strongly to the rebuild outlined in “The Letter.”
Emerging as a reliable all-situations center, Zibanejad rewarded the Rangers with impressive offensive numbers, recording 369 points (159 goals, 210 assists) in 357 games over the next five seasons as the Rangers transitioned from a rebuilding phase to becoming league elites.
Over the past three years, Zibanejad has maintained remarkable consistency. Out of 434 forwards who played 1,000 regular-season minutes in that time, Zibanejad ranks 40th with a goals-for percentage of 57.5%. This large sample size indicates the Rangers are a better team with Zibanejad on the ice.
Zibanejad continues to excel on the penalty kill, ranking as a top-30 player last season in short-handed scoring per 60 minutes and sixth overall with six shorthanded points. He achieved this while logging significant minutes on one of the league’s best penalty kills.
However, his five-on-five production is a concern.
In goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, he ranked 314th out of 402 forwards who played at least 400 minutes last season, with 0.45 goals per 60, the second-lowest of his career.
Zibanejad’s overall scoring chances also declined, finishing 277th out of 402 forwards in high-danger chances created per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick.
His raw point totals dropped significantly to their lowest since the 2017-18 season. On a per 60-minute basis, he fell from a consistent three-year average of roughly 2.15 points to 1.41 points per 60 minutes, a decline from first-line to third-line production for a highly-paid player.
These struggles also extended to the power play, where his goals per 60 dropped to the lowest since the 2016-17 season. This wasn’t merely a shooting percentage issue; Zibanejad also generated fewer high-danger opportunities for himself, with his chances per 60 minutes on the power play halving year-over-year.
If this trend continues, questions will arise about Zibanejad’s value. Did the Rangers overcommit? Did they sign him too late in his career? Is he worth the cap hit, and can he be the No. 1 center on a Stanley Cup contender?
These questions remain unanswered for now. The Rangers must find the answers, as elite centers like Alex Barkov and Connor McDavid will always be formidable opponents in the deep playoff runs.
The biggest question is whether Zibanejad can compete with these elite players when a Stanley Cup is at stake.
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