The Montreal Canadiens hold two first-round picks in the 2025 NHL Draft, and Calgary’s rebuild might lead them to trade one of these picks.
With their own pick and the Calgary Flames’ first-rounder for the next draft, this would mark the fourth consecutive draft where the Canadiens have two top-32 picks.
The Canadiens originally received a conditional first-round pick from Calgary in the complex Sean Monahan trade in the summer of 2022.
At that time, with Calgary being a middle-tier NHL team, there was a strong chance the pick would fall between the 11th and 17th spots in the 2025 NHL Draft.
However, Calgary’s recent shift towards a rebuild has changed the situation and might influence the Canadiens’ strategy regarding the pick they acquired nearly two years ago.
Simple Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes captivated the hockey community when the complex conditions of acquiring this draft pick were revealed.
Here’s a simplified explanation:
Montreal will get Calgary’s 1st-round pick if it’s not a top-10 pick. However, if Calgary’s pick is in the top 10 in June 2025, the Canadiens will receive the Florida Panthers’ 2025 1st-round pick instead.
Calgary originally got Florida’s 2025 1st-round pick in the 2022 Matthew Tkachuk trade, but this pick will only be transferred if Florida doesn’t win the lottery in 2025.
Given that the Panthers are favorites to win the Stanley Cup next season, it’s likely they will make the playoffs again.
Therefore, the worse Calgary performs, the more likely it is that the Canadiens will receive Florida’s 2025 1st-round pick.
But just how poorly is Calgary expected to perform?
Calgary’s Outlook
The Calgary Flames of the 2024-2025 season will look significantly different come September, having lost several key veterans.
With the departures of Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Jacob Markstrom, Andrew Mangiapane, and Nikita Zadorov, the Flames face a tough battle in the Pacific Division.
Competing against formidable teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks, and needing to surpass the LA Kings, Vegas Golden Knights, and the improved Seattle Kraken, their path to the playoffs is challenging.
Their forward lineup, led by Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich, and Jonathan Huberdeau, is solid but not exceptional and will depend on young players stepping up to stay competitive.
With a clear weakness on defense and an unproven yet promising Dustin Wolf expected to start in goal, Calgary is likely to experience a rocky season.
Therefore, unless Calgary experiences a significant turnaround and avoids finishing in the bottom-10 next season, the Canadiens would likely receive Florida’s 2025 first-round pick, which would probably fall between 20th and 32nd overall.
Likely Trade Chip?
Betting on the struggling Flames to continue their downward trend and further their veteran fire sale throughout the upcoming season, the Montreal Canadiens might consider trading their pick for a more established player.
They’re still searching for top-six help this summer and are waiting patiently for the right deal. Calgary’s/Florida’s first-round pick could play a crucial role in such a transaction.
For the Canadiens, another late first-rounder would be redundant; they’ve had one in each of the last three drafts. Out of those three selections, only one was used to draft a player (Filip Mesar), while the other two were traded either to move up (Michael Hage) or for a promising young player (Alex Newhook).
With the Canadiens aiming to advance in their rebuild and the Flames beginning their own, it seems almost certain that this pick won’t last until June 2025.
It’s just a matter of time.
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