“Unless they’ve already done so, 99.9% of New York Mets fans owe an apology. After exciting everyone by signing Juan Soto, the team followed up by bringing in Griffin Canning on a one-year, $4.25 million contract. He joined a roster that already had a mix of promising and questionable starting pitchers.
Canning hadn’t exactly impressed during his time with the Los Angeles Angels. This wasn’t a classic turnaround story—it was more like giving a fresh start to a pitcher who hadn’t proven much.
Before landing in New York, Canning briefly spent time with the Atlanta Braves in November, acquired in a trade for Jorge Soler before being non-tendered. The Mets stepped in, made a few tweaks, and now—after just 8 starts—he trails only the leader in ESPN’s National League Cy Young predictor rankings.”
Griffin Canning is an early favorite for the Cy Young based on at least one algorithm
One key thing to understand about the Cy Young predictor is that it gives a significant boost to pitchers on division-leading teams. Since the Mets are currently leading the NL East, Canning appears on the list alongside Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, and, until recently, Edwin Díaz.
All three starters have been among the league’s best this season. Although Díaz has had some rough patches, his inclusion is a reminder of his elite status as a closer. While others have surpassed him, he remains close to the top.
Canning’s 55.8-point total comes from an algorithm developed by Bill James and Rob Neyer, designed to estimate who will win the Cy Young Award. The formula is as follows:
((5 × IP ÷ 9) − ER) + (SO ÷ 12) + (SV × 2.5) + shutouts + ((W × 6) − (L × 2)) + a bonus for leading the division.
The formula isn’t flawless. Last year, AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal trailed Emmanuel Clase, and in the NL, Chris Sale finished behind Ryan Helsley. In 2023, the trend of relievers topping the predictor held true, with Felix Bautista and Devin Williams leading the AL and NL, respectively. Gerrit Cole was second to Bautista, while actual NL winner Blake Snell ranked fifth, behind Spencer Strider, Alexis Díaz, and Camilo Doval.
That’s why it’s a predictive tool, not a definitive measure. Stats can’t capture everything. Voters also consider narrative—like a pitcher carrying a team late in the season, even if his overall numbers aren’t as strong as someone who faltered down the stretch.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto currently leads the predictor with 57.3 points, but Canning could surpass him with a strong outing or if the Dodgers hit a rough patch.
Canning’s unexpected breakout with the Mets has been a feel-good story from many angles. His personal performance is impressive, and credit goes to David Stearns, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, and everyone who believed in him and helped guide his development.
It’s also worth noting that the Braves let him go before he ever pitched for them. That detail adds another layer to his narrative—and makes his success even more satisfying.
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