To put it simply, most of the decisions about options are straightforward, and this applies even more to arbitration-related choices. Still, it’s important to examine them because they’ll impact next season’s salary budget, which affects how much the team can spend on new additions. Let’s begin with a quick recap. Players who finish the season with between three and six years of service time are eligible for arbitration. Before three years, teams don’t have to pay more than the MLB minimum, but after that, salary negotiations become more complicated.
In essence, the team and player must agree on a salary for the upcoming season, which is based on service time and past performance. Usually, an agreement is reached, but if not, the player and team submit their desired salary by mid-January, and a neutral arbitrator decides between the two figures. The chosen salary then becomes official. This process can lead to high payouts, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $19.9 million after winning his arbitration case with Toronto last year.
No one on the Diamondbacks will earn that much. However, MLB Trade Rumors predicts Arizona will spend $28 million on their eight arbitration-eligible players in 2025. These payments are not guaranteed. If the team doesn’t want to pay a player, they can non-tender them, which releases the player to sign elsewhere. For example, Arizona non-tendered Kyle Lewis last year instead of paying him $1.61 million, and he has since fallen out of baseball.
Will Arizona non-tender anyone this year? Probably not. Below are the eight Diamondbacks players eligible for arbitration this winter, with their service time, current salary, and MLBTR’s projected arbitration salary for 2025:
– **Zac Gallen (5.100)**: $10.01M → $14.1M
– **Ryan Thompson (4.095)**: $1.35M → $2.9M
– **A.J. Puk (4.124)**: $1.8M → $2.6M
– **Kevin Ginkel (4.033)**: $1.23M → $2.3M
– **Geraldo Perdomo (3.015)**: $786K → $2.1M
– **Joe Mantiply (4.029)**: $925K → $1.6M
– **Pavin Smith (3.015)**: $740K → $1.6M
– **Kyle Nelson (3.076)**: $757K → $800K
While service time plays a role, factors like performance, health, and role on the team also influence these figures. For instance, Smith debuted in 2020, but because of time spent in the minors, he’s only now entering arbitration, like Perdomo.
Half of Arizona’s likely bullpen next season—Ginkel, Mantiply, Puk, and Thompson—are in their second year of arbitration, expected to earn a combined $8.6 million, roughly what a single “proven closer” might command. The only real uncertainty is with Nelson, who missed most of 2024 due to Thoracic Outlet Surgery. His minor raise reflects his absence, but if healthy for spring training, the team will likely tender him, given his solid past performance.
Even if Nelson is non-tendered, it won’t significantly impact the budget. The bulk of the arbitration payout will go to Gallen, who is expected to earn more than the other seven combined. His 2025 salary could have been higher, but his 2024 performance fell short of his 2023 numbers, which will factor into his arbitration case. As he approaches free agency, this could be his last season with Arizona.
In total, the eight players represent an additional $10 million in salary over 2024, a significant amount but still small compared to the cost of retaining or replacing Arizona’s free agents once the World Series ends.
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