The San Diego Padres and Dylan Cease reached an agreement on his 2025 salary, avoiding arbitration. The NL Cy Young candidate will earn $13.75 million next season.
At 29, Cease delivered an impressive 2024 campaign, making 33 starts with a 3.47 ERA and racking up 224 strikeouts over 189.1 innings.
This deal is a bargain for the budget-conscious Padres, but it raises questions about Cease’s long-term future in San Diego. With free agency looming after 2025 and the team looking to cut costs, a trade seems possible—if not likely.
Cease’s current contract makes him a highly attractive asset. Contenders would be willing to pay a hefty price, even for a rental. Among San Diego’s tradable contracts, none hold the value Cease does. He’s vital to the team’s competitive hopes, especially with All-Star Joe Musgrove sidelined for the season following UCL surgery. However, if the Padres struggle early in the year, Cease could become the centerpiece of the trade market.
In short, while this is a great value for both the Padres and Cease, it doesn’t point to a long-term commitment in San Diego.
Dylan Cease’s contract is great value, but it won’t keep him in a Padres uniform
According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, teams that have reached out to the Padres about Dylan Cease’s availability “haven’t been rebuffed entirely.” While San Diego values Cease, they’ve shown a willingness in the past to part with key players to cut costs. The current free-agent market for top-tier starting pitchers is out of reach for many teams, making Cease an attractive trade asset. With his age, elite pitching ability, and durability, Cease could command a contract exceeding $200 million after the 2025 season if he performs well.
A critical factor in the Padres’ decision-making is Roki Sasaki. The 23-year-old Japanese phenom is reportedly a top target for San Diego. While Sasaki may have his innings managed early, his elite skill set could make an immediate impact in MLB. If Sasaki chooses the Padres, his affordable, controllable contract would provide financial flexibility and allow San Diego to seriously consider moving Cease.
Currently, the Padres’ payroll is projected to be around $39 million higher than last season (via MLB Trade Rumors), and the team would prefer to trim closer to last year’s figure. Cease, while not overly expensive for his talent level, still represents a significant cost. Trading him for multiple prospects and positioning Sasaki as the new ace could alleviate some financial strain.
In a perfect world, the Padres would simply absorb the higher payroll, building a rotation anchored by Cease and Sasaki. However, few teams are willing to spend like the Dodgers. As a result, San Diego will need to get creative to stay competitive within their division.
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