The Seattle Mariners are expected to explore several free-agent options for offensive upgrades this offseason, but their most impactful target might be a top-tier starting pitcher.
Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, a 23-year-old standout with the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), is set to transition to MLB. The Marines announced Saturday that they have initiated the process to make Sasaki available to MLB teams.
Renowned for his dominant fastball, Sasaki is widely regarded as Japan’s best pitcher. He was instrumental in Team Japan’s victory at the 2023 World Baseball Classic. This past season, Sasaki posted a 10-5 record with a 2.35 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts across 111 innings. Over his four-year NPB career, he has compiled a 29-15 record with an impressive 2.10 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and 505 strikeouts in 394 2/3 innings.
While the Los Angeles Dodgers are considered the frontrunners to sign Sasaki, the Mariners are also seen as contenders. SportsBetting.ag gives Seattle seven-to-one odds to acquire Sasaki, ranking fourth behind the Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and New York Mets.
On Wednesday’s edition of *Wyman and Bob*, producer Mike Lefko and Mariners broadcaster Gary Hill Jr. discussed Seattle’s chances of signing Sasaki, the potential strategies the team could use to attract him, and how his addition might shape their offseason plans.
Why many teams have a shot
The Dodgers being frontrunners to land Roki Sasaki isn’t unexpected. Los Angeles is already home to Japanese stars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both of whom joined the team last offseason. With their substantial financial resources and fresh off a World Series victory, the Dodgers are a natural contender for Sasaki.
However, unlike their acquisitions of Ohtani and Yamamoto, the Dodgers won’t be able to outspend rivals to secure Sasaki due to MLB’s international signing rules. As former MLB executive Hill explained, “That’s the intriguing part of this scenario—it’s just international funds, which are relatively even across teams. The Dodgers or Mets can’t dominate with massive offers here. This situation is unique because Sasaki is coming over early at 23, and his talent is incredible.”
Since Sasaki is under 25, MLB rules require him to sign as an international amateur free agent. This means he won’t receive a lucrative deal like Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million contract. Instead, he’ll sign a minor-league deal that counts against a team’s international bonus pool, with six years of club control and arbitration eligibility. For context, Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels in 2016 at 23 for a $2,315,000 bonus.
The timing of Sasaki’s posting could significantly impact teams like the Mariners. If Sasaki isn’t posted until after January 15, 2025, Seattle will have $7,555,500 in available international funds, among the highest totals, compared to the Dodgers’ $5,146,200. Currently, Seattle has only $19,500 left in their 2024 pool, while the Dodgers lead with $2,502,500.
The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15, and the 2025 period begins on January 15. If the Chiba Lotte Marines decide to post Sasaki before December 15, teams will have 45 days to negotiate. According to Hill, even teams with strong rotations, like the Mariners, should seriously pursue him: “It’s a complete mystery what it’ll take, but the Mariners have a compelling case to make.”
Two strong pitches for Seattle Mariners
With financial considerations being relatively balanced among potential suitors, the key to signing Sasaki may hinge on which team can present the most compelling case for their organization.
Hill highlighted two significant advantages the Mariners possess. The first is their strong track record in developing pitchers.
“If you’re a pitcher looking to improve, there aren’t many teams that can match what the Mariners offer right now,” Hill explained. “When you consider the smartest teams in baseball, the Mariners are now part of that conversation alongside teams like Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Their success in building a dominant rotation and developing talent through their system is remarkable.”
He pointed to Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo as prime examples of this success. “These are guys who weren’t top-10 picks, but they quickly progressed through the system and have been highly productive,” Hill noted.
The second advantage is the Mariners’ rich history with Japanese players.
“Seattle has a long-standing tradition of Japanese stars,” Hill said. “Beyond Ichiro Suzuki, there’s Kazuhiro Sasaki, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Shigetoshi Hasegawa, all of whom were All-Stars, and more recently, Yusei Kikuchi. It’s a proud legacy that sets the Mariners apart.”
The impact of a Sasaki signing
One of the major discussions surrounding the Mariners revolves around whether they should trade from their impressive group of five starting pitchers to bolster their offense.
The organization has expressed a preference against this approach. At the end of the season, President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto described it as “Plan Z,” and general manager Justin Hollander reinforced that such a move was unlikely.
However, signing a pitcher like Sasaki could make it easier for Seattle’s front office to consider parting with one of their established starters.
“It would make it easier to trade one of their current starters because, when you look at their rotation, it’s a position of strength,” Hill said. “You might end up needing to trade one to acquire a bat. We’ll see how things unfold during the season.”
Still, Hill noted other considerations when trading a starter.
“If you trade one and then suffer an injury early in the season, what was once a key strength could quickly become a weakness,” Hill said. “Injuries happen in Major League Baseball. Bringing in Sasaki would provide more depth, but transitioning pitchers from Japan comes with adjustments. They’re accustomed to pitching once a week, so a six-man rotation might make sense. But that would be a great problem to solve.”
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