Philadelphia Phillies veteran pitcher is experiencing the worst stretch of his career. In a rough outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, Nola allowed a career-high 12 hits and nine earned runs in just 3⅔ innings during a 14-7 defeat. His record has now fallen to 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and a below-average 69 ERA+.
One alarming trend from Wednesday’s start was Nola’s inability to finish off hitters when ahead in the count. As noted by Matt Gelb of The Athletic, Nola had recently shown signs of improvement, posting a 3.33 ERA in his prior four outings following a rocky start that featured decreased fastball velocity and a 6.65 ERA.
However, those gains disappeared against St. Louis. Nola gave up six two-strike hits in the loss, bringing his season total to 26 — second-most in MLB behind Chris Sale of the Braves. Gelb reported that opponents are now batting .229 with a .597 OPS in two-strike situations against Nola, compared to .146 and .466 last year — by far the worst he’s ever been in those counts.
Home runs have also been a major issue; Nola has allowed 11 long balls in nine starts, including three in his most recent game. At his current pace, he could allow 30 or more home runs for a third straight season.
“I don’t really have another answer for tonight, besides: ‘Terrible,’” Nola said to Gelb.
Nola, who turns 32 next month, is only in the second year of a seven-year, $172 million contract signed before the 2024 season — a sizable investment the Phillies may struggle to justify if his slump continues.
The concern is amplified by Nola’s previously steady track record. Since 2015, he’s logged at least 32 starts six times, surpassed 200 strikeouts five times, and thrown over 180 innings six times (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).
But the advanced metrics for 2025 are troubling. Per Baseball Savant, Nola is currently posting career-worst numbers in barrel rate (9.4%) and hard-hit rate (43.6%), both significantly worse than his career norms of 6.4% and 35.4%.
His expected ERA is a disappointing 4.96 (19th percentile), and his expected batting average against sits at .284 (15th percentile). Perhaps most worrisome, his fastball velocity has dipped to 90.1 mph — down a full mph from 2024 and over 2 mph from 2021.
Although Philadelphia still has a strong rotation with Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, and Cristopher Sanchez, their hopes of making a deep playoff run could depend heavily on whether Nola can rediscover his form.
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