After a slow start to this year’s trade deadline, one of the better pitchers available, Zach Eflin, has been traded from Tropicana Field to Baltimore, known for its Old Bay seasoning and Natty Boh beer. In exchange, the Rays will receive three prospects from the Orioles: right-handed starter Jackson Baumeister, infielder Mac Horvath, and outfielder Matthew Etzel. Eflin, in his second season with the Rays, has posted a 4.09 ERA and a 3.65 FIP over 19 starts, amounting to 1.8 WAR.
Baltimore’s rotation depth was a concern at the start of the season. Acquiring Corbin Burnes helped, and with the seventh-best ERA and 10th-best WAR in baseball, the rotation hasn’t hindered their World Series aspirations. However, injuries have caused issues. Both Kyle Bradish and John Means had Tommy John surgery in June, and Tyler Wells is out for the season following UCL surgery. Cole Irvin struggled in June, and Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott haven’t performed consistently. Thus, the Orioles needed more certainty behind Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.
Eflin may not compete for a Cy Young like Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, but he is a reliable number two pitcher with an ERA and FIP between 3.50 and 4.00 in most seasons. His durability in 2023 and 2024 is a valuable asset. ZiPS projects a 3.62 ERA and 1.1 WAR from Eflin for the rest of the season, which the Orioles would be pleased with. Additionally, Eflin is signed for 2025, which could help if Burnes isn’t extended. ZiPS projects a 3.76 ERA and 2.7 WAR from Eflin in 2025, a reasonable return for his contract.
The Orioles traded for Eflin without losing top-tier prospects. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice ranked Baumeister 13th and Horvath 25th in the Orioles’ system, with Etzel not making the list. Baumeister has a promising but inconsistent arm, with a fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. Horvath has shown potential at High-A with above-average pull power but is vulnerable to elevated pitches. His defensive position is debated, but he could fill a bench role. Etzel is seen as a depth outfielder with limited utility.
The trade reflects the current market, where proven players like Eflin are acquired for relatively light packages. The Orioles gained a solid number two starter, improving their team for 2024 and 2025 without giving up significant prospects.
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