Cardinals right-hander picked up the win against the Giants today, and afterward Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that San Francisco could be keeping a particularly close watch on the 35-year-old. According to Slusser, He is “on the Giants’ radar” and “very much a potential target” for the offseason.
The Giants’ interest makes sense given their rotation outlook for 2026. Beyond Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, there aren’t many locks. Justin Verlander is headed for free agency, Landen Roupp may have pitched his way into contention with a solid 22-start run, and Kyle Harrison—who struggled in 2024 and was later sent to Boston in the Rafael Devers trade—won’t be in the mix.
With Jordan Hicks also part of that deal, San Francisco will likely need to add at least one, if not two, starting pitchers this winter.
That’s where Gray comes in. While he hasn’t matched his 2023 Cy Young runner-up form with the Twins, he’s been a steady arm for St. Louis, logging a 4.13 ERA and league-average ERA+ across 56 starts. Advanced metrics, however, paint a brighter picture: his 3.30 FIP, 3.17 SIERA, and 2.97 xFIP suggest better underlying performance.
Gray’s 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate rank him among the top six starters in K-BB% over the past two seasons, though he’s been hurt by a high BABIP, a low strand rate, and a concerning home run spike. Oracle Park’s homer-suppressing dimensions could make him an especially good fit for San Francisco.
The bigger hurdle may be Gray’s willingness to waive his no-trade clause. Despite the Cardinals floating him in trade talks both last offseason and at the deadline, he has declined to leave St. Louis. That said, his Bay Area roots and longstanding relationship with Giants manager Bob Melvin—his skipper in Oakland—could make San Francisco one of the few destinations he’d consider.
Even then, money complicates things. Gray is owed $35 million in 2026, plus a $5 million buyout on a likely-declined 2027 option.
Any acquiring team would effectively be taking on a $40 million commitment, which could make the Giants reluctant unless St. Louis agrees to cover a significant portion of the contract. The Cardinals, meanwhile, may prefer to keep him if offers don’t go beyond simple salary relief, especially with few long-term commitments on their books.
Gray isn’t the only option the Giants could pursue. Luis Castillo (Mariners) might be dangled, and other potential trade chips like Sandy Alcantara or Joe Ryan could reemerge in talks.
On the free-agent side, arms such as Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, and even Verlander will be available, giving San Francisco multiple paths to strengthen its rotation.
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