Baseball veterans often say, “There’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract,” because a year flies by quickly.
It’s been less than a week since Walker Buehler first put on a Boston Red Sox uniform, yet before long, he’ll be wrapping up his debut season with his new team—potentially his only one.
Buehler has expressed interest in staying in Boston beyond 2025 if things go well. Now, fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, he’ll aim to prove he’s worth much more than the $21.05 million he signed for in December.
Whether the Red Sox retain Buehler long-term will depend on his performance and their willingness to pay. Will he return to his All-Star form, or will he resemble the pitcher who posted a 5.38 ERA last season? And how much is Boston willing to invest?
On Wednesday, CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson projected Buehler’s next contract at four years, $115 million—a figure that could make the Red Sox hesitant.
“Buehler essentially signed for the qualifying offer (one year, $21 million) after a rough season,” Anderson wrote. “Now, if he pitches like he did in 2019 or 2021, his market will look entirely different.
“I believe Buehler has one of the widest ranges of possible outcomes this year. Maybe I’m optimistic, but the Tyler Glasnow extension (four years, $111.6 million) seems like a reasonable comparison. Prediction: Four years, $115 million ($28.75 million AAV).”
Boston has been wary of big contracts for starting pitchers since the five-year Chris Sale extension in 2019 didn’t pan out. A $28.75 million annual salary would also be the second-highest in franchise history, trailing only David Price’s $31 million.
Buehler does have a $25 million mutual option for 2026, but such options are rarely exercised by both parties—performance usually determines whether it’s an excellent or regrettable deal.
It’s still early, and plenty can change, but both Buehler and the Red Sox have plenty to gain if he quickly proves that his 2024 struggles are behind him.
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