Some Mariners fans might be feeling dizzy after this past weekend. With Seattle sweeping the Angels and the Astros falling to the Braves on Sunday, the Mariners now stand alone atop the AL West later in the season than they have since 2001.
Of course, a pivotal three-game set in Houston looms this weekend, which could heavily influence the division race. But for now, it’s worth noting that Seattle has also positioned itself to potentially secure a first-round bye.
The allure of a first round-bye for the Mariners
Beyond the potential for crucial homefield advantage in the Division Series, clinching a first-round bye would also provide the Mariners with much-needed rest after a season riddled with injuries. But one of the teams they’re chasing for that bye recently received news that could have dealt a major setback to their playoff push.
Seattle has trimmed the gap to just three games behind the Tigers, fueled by a season-best nine-game winning streak. Their momentum seemed to be boosted further when Detroit’s ace and former Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, left his Friday start with what looked like a serious injury.
At first, the incident appeared worrisome, sparking speculation Skubal might miss time during a critical stretch. However, according to MLB.com’s Justin Morris, the two-time All-Star is expected to stay on schedule and start Thursday, with Tigers manager A.J. Hinch confirming:
“It’s all good news. So, obviously, that’s great for us, and great for him, and now we’ll work toward his work week. … We’ll get together with him on Monday. He’ll do his normal close-throwing workout that he does, and we’ll move forward.”
While no fan would ever openly root for a player to get hurt, the Mariners certainly wouldn’t have minded if Skubal had been sidelined. The Tigers have gone 42-18 in his starts over the past two years, and he’s once again in the Cy Young conversation—leading the AL with a 6.2 rWAR, 2.26 ERA, and 2.45 FIP, while topping all of MLB with a 0.862 WHIP.
Still enough reason to be optimistic about the Mariners
It’s worth noting that the Mariners hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers if both clubs finish with identical records. That edge comes from their impressive — and admittedly somewhat unexpected — sweep in Detroit before the All-Star break.
Yes, the Tigers have the lighter schedule down the stretch, but the difference is minimal. According to FanGraphs, Detroit’s remaining opponents carry a combined .499 winning percentage, compared to .502 for Seattle’s last 12 games.
That said, a three-game lead this late in the year is significant, which is why any missed starts from Skubal could have swung things in Seattle’s favor. Even so, the Mariners remain within striking distance of Detroit for a first-round bye — a position most fans would have gladly accepted back in March heading into the final two weeks of the season.
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