The Atlanta Braves went 14-16 in April, but there’s still a slim chance they could end May with a winning record. To make that happen, they’ll need to win the first two games of their weekend series against the Red Sox — a tall order considering recent struggles. Earlier in the month, the Braves had a solid stretch, going 5-2 against the Nationals and Red Sox, but that progress was undone by a 2-6 slide since then. That slump featured costly baserunning errors, inconsistent offense, and continued issues with pitching management, setting them back in the playoff race.
The Red Sox haven’t fared much better since their last meeting with Atlanta two weekends ago. After dropping that series, they briefly rebounded by winning two of three against the Mets, then split with the Orioles before being swept by the Brewers. Now at 27-31, they’re mired in a five-game losing streak, with their last two losses coming via walk-offs.
Statistically, the Red Sox rank seventh in position player value (12th in wRC+, fourth in defensive value) and 12th in pitching value overall. For May alone, they rank 10th and 17th, respectively. Interestingly, based on BaseRuns, the Red Sox should be 33-25 — six wins better than their actual record, the largest underperformance in MLB (compared to the Braves’ -2). Still, they haven’t capitalized on opportunities this month, including losing all three of Garrett Crochet’s starts and splitting a series with the Orioles despite outscoring them 27-17.
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