One of the more unexpected elements of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 13-inning, 2-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday was Pittsburgh’s first baseman attempting a flying clothesline on the catcher at home plate—yet somehow, the play still resulted in an out and no runs for the Pirates.
Another surprising element? The Cardinals even found themselves in such a low-scoring affair, ending their streak of 11 straight games with four or more runs to open the season.
While the early outlook on the Cardinals’ pitching could reasonably be described as “bleak,” the team has shown significant progress at the plate, both in approach and production. That shift has likely given some cautious optimism to the front office.
According to FanGraphs’ weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which measures offensive performance against the league average (adjusted for park factors), the Cardinals rank fifth in MLB with a wRC+ of 123 (where 100 is average). That places them just behind the Phillies and Diamondbacks, in a close pack trailing the Tigers and Yankees.
Their .278 team batting average is second only to the Padres, and their .351 on-base percentage edges out the Cubs for second behind the Phillies.
It’s only been 11 games, so it’s wise not to overreact—but it’s undeniably a better start than many expected. On the pitching side, changes are already underway: Chris Roycroft was sent back to Triple-A Memphis following some early season struggles.
Even with key players like Nolan Gorman and Iván Herrera sidelined, the Cardinals’ lineup has consistently pressured opposing pitchers. The team has remained competitive despite its pitching depth issues.
Much of the preseason talk focused on giving young hitters opportunities, and it was fair to question whether those players would deliver. So far, they have. Gorman looked strong before his injury (4-for-8 with a homer and double), and several other young bats have stepped up—even some unexpected ones.
Of the nine Cardinals with the most plate appearances so far, six have an OPS+ well above average. That list doesn’t even include Herrera, who leads the team with four homers. The three below average—Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras, and Masyn Winn—are showing signs of life. Winn, in particular, rebounded from an 0-for-18 start to go 10-for-27 in his last stretch.
Contreras remains a concern. His rough start—just 5 hits in 49 at-bats and a league-worst 22 strikeouts—has raised eyebrows. While his power and swing metrics remain promising, his whiff and chase rates are problematic. Whether he can remain in the No. 2 spot in the lineup is uncertain.
With only two years left on his contract and the team embarking on a multi-year transition (though they avoid calling it a rebuild), Contreras’ future in St. Louis looks murky.
Elsewhere, Lars Nootbaar is heating up after a strong start, Brendan Donovan found his groove on the road, and Jordan Walker is showing growth and maturity at the plate—looking much improved from his sophomore slump.
Stat-minded baseball people will caution against drawing conclusions so early, especially given odd weather and limited divisional play. But the Cardinals are starting from a strong place, and that can change the tone of a season. Starting hot allows for a different mentality than scrambling to recover from a slow beginning.
Given recent struggles, the Cardinals have every reason to savor this start—even if cautiously. After years of preaching patience and trusting the process without tangible results, they’re finally seeing production that validates the approach. That’s a much easier sell to both fans and players.
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