Luis Severino is about to enter free agency.
Starting pitcher Luis Severino will decline the New York Mets’ qualifying offer, according to Newsday’s Tim Healey.
This offseason, a qualifying offer is valued at one year and $21.05 million. While Severino and the Mets can still negotiate a new contract, the qualifying offer ensures the Mets will receive draft-pick compensation if he signs with another team.
Severino, 30, had a strong rebound season with the Mets after his career seemed to hit a low point during his final season with the Yankees. In 31 starts, he recorded a 3.91 ERA and a 1.242 WHIP, allowing 166 hits over 188 innings.
Though his numbers weren’t exceptional, they marked a significant improvement from his 6.65 ERA in 2023 with the Yankees. A major factor in his resurgence was halving his home run rate, dropping from 2.3 per nine innings in 2023 to 1.1 in 2024, alongside a reduced hit rate (8.2 hits per nine innings compared to 11.4).
Severino joined the Mets on a one-year, $13 million deal last winter, aiming to revitalize his career. Now, he enters free agency seeking a more lucrative contract.
Luis Severino is taking a risk by not accepting the Mets’ qualifying offer
Most MLB players decline qualifying offers, as they’re often extended primarily to secure draft pick compensation for the team. For instance, Juan Soto turned down the Yankees’ $21.05 million offer on Tuesday—a move everyone expected, but the Yankees still made the offer as a formality to protect their interests.
However, accepting the offer might have been a sensible choice for Luis Severino. The former All-Star, who hasn’t reached that level since 2018 due to persistent injuries, faces an uncertain market. With a crowded pool of starting pitchers in free agency this offseason, there’s no guarantee he’ll earn more than the qualifying offer — whether from the Mets or another team.
If Severino had accepted, he would have secured an $8 million raise from last season and gained another year to demonstrate he can still pitch at the elite level he displayed in the late 2010s. Instead, he appears to be prioritizing the stability of a multi-year deal. While he’s unlikely to land more than a two- or three-year contract, such a deal could bring in significantly more than the qualifying offer.
According to MLB Trade Rumors’ free-agent predictions earlier this month, Severino could secure a three-year, $51 million contract. If that’s his eventual deal, rejecting the qualifying offer will have proven to be a smart decision.
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